A closer look at the Arsenal team, and three very distinct teams are visible
The senior team (21+ and play like it!)
Arsenal's senior team look quite good on paper and most of these players would be able to fit into any world class team and hence is essential for us to hold on to them for dear life. The hampering factor has been that rarely have we been able to find all 12 fit, and half the team got to know each other only in September which has lead to coordination problems. We can say with reasonable confidence that if we can manage to get a good pre-season and have all of them fit, we could have a good chance
| Fabianski |
| Sagna |
| Vermaelean |
| Koscielny |
| Mertesacker |
| Gibbs |
| Santos |
| Gervinho |
| Arteta |
| Ramsey |
| Walcott |
| Van Persie |
Some people may find the choice of Fabianski in this list amusing, but the fact is he isnt too bad as a reserve goal keeper and more importantly we cant go and spend 18m on a goal keeper when there are much urgent reinforcements needed(discussed later). Also I have included Sczezsny in the other list because of his age. A few of these players have been inconsistent, but personally I am willing to give them a season more to settle in post their new signing/long term injuries.
The promising team
The young ones, the heirs to the throne, the ones that give us something to look forward to everytime they take the field. Some of them are already first team regulars (marked in colour) while the others will need a bit of experience in the premier league before they can make it on the big stage. There are of course plenty more in this category, but I will restrict myself to those who have been making the news recently.
| Sczezsny |
| Yennaris |
| Jenkinson |
| Bartley |
| Miguel |
| Coquelin |
| Frimpong |
| Ox-Chamb |
| Wishere |
| Miyaichi |
| Joel Campbell |
| Lansbury |
Most of these should ideally have 2 years of top flight experience by 2014 and if they are able to live up to the high expectations we have of them, we would be saving valuable money in transfer fees till 2020!!
The failed team
This is where Arsenal have the most probems. These are are the player who consistently make our hearts beat faster with fear every time we hear their name on the starting line up or as substitutes. Most of them have had their contracts extended every time without much reason and as a result, get away with quite hefty paychecks putting major pressure on our already strained wage bill. The sooner they are cleared out, the better it will be for the club. Some might say I have been harsh on Park, that he hasnt really got a chance to prove himself, but the fact is at his age, he should be taking the burden off Van Persie, but however hasnt seemed to inspire much confidence in the manager. In the event that he does manage to perform any miracles in the season left, I would be more than willing to move his name to the first list.
| Almunia | 2 |
| Mannone | 2 |
| Djorou | 5 |
| Squillaci | 3 |
| Denilson | 4 |
| Diaby | 5 |
| Bendtner | 6 |
| Vela | 5 |
| Park | 3 |
| Arshavin | 6 |
| Rosicky | 5 |
| Chamakh | 6 |
Figures to the right indicate the amount which can be expected from their sales. Not only will these departing players bring in about 50m in transfer fees, they should also take off close to 30 million or so off our wage bill allowing us to restructure our wage bill to retain our best performers.
Do we have any money to buy new players?
Well I am no accountant, but from what I have read about the club accounts (largely from the brilliant Swiss Ramble) we actually are just about break even in our football accounts. Hence any new player purchase will have to be funded by player sales. Any money we have made so far from last years player sales and flat sales goes into our cash and reserves which helps us reduce our net debt which ensures the long term stability of the club (important if you have been reading about the Glasgow Rangers going into administration). Ironically even if we were to borrow funds to buy new players, the increased amortization could get us in trouble with the FFP, thus the FFP will actually end up hurting clubs like us who have always been prudent. However, if the club administrators do decide to just stick to avoiding losses as considered by FFP, then I believe Arsenal could have about 25 m GBP to spend on new players. Calculations as below
Money left as per FFP = Operating Profit+ Money Spent on youth academy, community etc-Player amortization
= 46+11-32
= 25
*Assumptions
- Revenue would remain the same. This is of course contingent on us playing Champions League football, but if we don't make it to the Champion League, I see at least one big name player leaving so we can assume that revenue remains constant
- Wages remain constant: As discussed above, the removal of the above players would free up money for critical signings. Given the 25-member squad rule and the homegrown player rule, we will have to sell players to bring in new ones. Also the revenue earned from the pre-season tours as well as any new deals we sign with secondary partners should cover for a wage rise.
- Swiss Ramble has used a figure of 11 for money spent on youth academy and community for chelsea and manc, so I am using the same for Arsenal
- Last years armortization was around 21 million. We spent about 53 million on new players assuming that these were for standard 5.5 year contracts, we can assume an increase in amortization of 11 million
- I have not considered profit made from player sales. Any money earned from this can be used to cover any shortfalls in revenue or increase in wages.
Ok. So maybe we have the moolah...So who do we need?
Looking at the squad, the need today is to have 'horses for courses'. Arsenal play 50 matches a year and this would need us to have quite a strong squad. So here is my wishlist!
Centerback
While we have Vermaelan, Koscielny, Mertasacker all world class and quite different from each other, there is a dire need for a strong 4th center back as Djorou and Squillaci are both not good enough. Chris Samba would fit the bill perfectly!
Cost:10m
Right Back
Currently there is no experienced player to back up Bacary Sagna on the right as Jenkinson and Yennaris are both quite young. Call it recency effect, but my choice would be Kieran Richardson
Cost:10-12m
Left Back
None I feel Gibbs and Santos need a full season at the top before passing judgement. Gibbs has pace while Santos is skillful.
Central Midfield
Again, I feel this is one area where we are the strongest. Song Arteta Ramsey Wilshere Coquelin Frimpong all have very different styles of play and can help us take on any opposition midfield. This season, the first three have been overworked and it will be good to see if the others can take up the mantle.
Wings/Creative Players
We have Gervinho Walcott and Chambo who have done decently well and Ryo Miyaichi has had a bright start at Bolton. However we need to replace Rosicky and Arshavin. Hazard and Goetze would fit the bill perfectly!
Cost:65m
Strikers
First, we need to hold on to Van Persie! As a backup, we need at least 2 quality strikers, benchmark here is of course Manu with Rooney, Welbeck, Hernandez, Berbatov .Podolski might be a good choice, along with anyone who might fit the bill!
Cost: 40 million
Players in: Samba, Richardson, Hazard, Goetze, Podolski +1 striker
Cost:125 million
Lets see how the rest of the season unfolds and summers and hopefully we should have all our players back fit from the Euros, and we shall go all guns blazing!!
